海外研报
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Commodities Technical Advantage Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end
View: Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an endOil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year
海外研报
2024年07月30日
An unlikely source of mid-weekvolatility
Financial markets had a volatile day on Wednesday, with Treasuries performingpoorly. There were various factors to point to for the volatility(weak Eurozone PMlsdovish Dudleyarticle, soft5yauction), butoneunlikely source ofthis volatility mighthave
海外研报
2024年07月30日
BoJ: why this time is different
We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Global Fixed incomeWeekly
Similarly to USD, front-end HICPxT pricing is broadly in line with our economistsforecasts on the 1y with some slight upside over the coming months. 10y HICPcurrentlytrades slightly cheap compared to our macro model (~10bps). The 5s10sHlCP curve
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet
Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom
海外研报
2024年07月30日
US rates forecast update
The resulting baseline forecast has the 10y UST yield at 4.25% at year-end, withyields across the curve modestly above forwards.The forecastgenerally sees front.end spreads (2s5s) a bit flatter than forwards, reflecting a more gradual pace of
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Yen facing cross-currents
The monetary policy convergence story is real - DB changed its Fed call to 3 cuts(previously 1) this year after the CPl print. While the Fed repricing over the comingyearortwo hasn't been huge (eg, 1y1yis still comfortably above thelows
海外研报
2024年07月30日
GBP: mind the black hole
The GBP rally – which has come to define the G10 FX market so far this year –has lost momentum of late amidst returning risk aversion. The GBP has been
海外研报
2024年07月30日
SALES COMMENTARY ONLY (NOT A PRODUCT OF RESEARCH)
While earnings are off to a strong start – 78% beating an already high “hurdle” and 2Q24 EPS estimates revised higher to +10.2% – mega cap tech results
海外研报
2024年07月30日
Global equities lost 0.9%; Japan underperformed
Macro data this weekUS: The JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISMmanufacturing index on Thursday, and the employment
海外研报
2024年07月30日
