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China: Industrial profits rose sequentially in June

China’s industrial profits and revenue rose by 3.9% yoy and 2.9% yoy, respectively,in June, from +0.5% yoy and +4.1% yoy in May. In sequential terms, industrial
海外研报

US growth pick-up but dimmer Europe outlook

US election: Harris steps in, but Trump still more likelyWhile the prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House
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Weekend Cross-asset Dislocations (28-Jul-2024)

The July short squeeze has been painful, but the short-squeeze should be short-lived
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Weekly Warm-up: Does The Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome?

Does the Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome? Like in 2016-2017, we are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on the
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US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Chinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports
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New Candidate, Same Implications

To project the impact of elections on the markets, we typically frame scenarios. But we could never have dreamed up the truly wild month we just went
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Navigating a Noisy Election

Prepare for more noise than signal. Uncertainty is high for election results & the macro impacts of key policy choices. We see value in key equity sectors, a skew toward USD &
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Still See a Soft Landing

We believe that fears of a hard landing remain overdone. Two weeks ago, Ellen wrote that we continue to see data consistent with a soft landing. This week’s data brought
海外研报

Still See a Soft Landing

We believe that fears of a hard landing remain overdone. Two weeks ago, Ellen wrote that we continue to see data consistent with a soft landing. This week’s data brought more evidence
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2024 US Elections – An Early Guide

With Election Day 334 days away, it's likely much will change re: the drivers of the outcome & their market impact.
海外研报