海外研报

Mexico: Firm Broad-Based May Sequential Real Activity Expansion (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Real activity recorded a 0.75% mom sa variation in May, firmer thanexpectations for a milder 0.55% mom sa increase and more than offsetting the April

US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Key TakeawaysChinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports ~75%

Weekly Warm-up: Does TheCycle Matter More Than TheElection Outcome?

Does the Cycle Matter More Than The Election Outcome? Like in 2016.2017, we are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on theoutcome of the election, While markets have been digesting the rising oddsof a Trump win, cyclical

New Monetary Framework: more hawkish than you think

The ECB’s new monetary framework is set to take effect on18 September, and yet nothing will really change. The only effective

Precious Analyst China’s Structurally Resilient Gold Demand

The gold price set a new all-time high of $2,483/toz on Wednesday (July 17) asexpected Fed cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into the gold market.

The Pulse of the Market Thoughts on Sentiment, Earnings, Rotation, and the US Election

In a NutshellThe big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has gotten as extreme as it did last August and this past March.

FOMC – Six questions

Two 2024 cuts versus three? Our baseline remains two Fed cuts in H2, one in September and one in Q4. The market is divided on pricing and so are we to some

The Macro Blog - Yen -A better Bank of Japan timing?

Last week's intraday price action in the USD/JPY suggests that the Bank of Japan may have intervened in the FX market onceagain to counteract yen weakness. While it is too early to determine the ultimate impact, the current market conditions

Can Trump depreciate the USD?

Careful what you wish for, ‘cause you might get it in heapsThe most often asked question we encountered last week was whether a weak USD

Authorities Reach Agreement on External Debt Restructuring with Bondholders

Bottom line: Ukraine reached agreement with an ad hoc creditor committeerepresenting holdings of around 25% of Ukrainian bondholders on restructuring