海外研报

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 21 – 26 July

Full focus on US 2Q GDP and PCEWe expect the advance estimate of 2Q GDP to come in at 2.3% qoq saar on the back of a strong consumer, with risks to the downside. Meanwhile, personal income and

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 21 – 26 July

Full focus on US 2Q GDP and PCEWe expect the advance estimate of 2Q GDP to come in at 2.3% qoq saar on the back of

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 21 – 26 July

Full focus on US 2Q GDP and PCEWe expect the advance estimate of 2Q GDP to come in at 2.3% qoq saar on the back of

High Frequency Monitor Temporary glitch

Semis weighed on equity returns last weekThe MSCI AC World Index fell -2.1% last week as the Semiconductor sector (-9.1%) weighed on returns in all regions. Despite the pullback, this global Semis sector has still

Liquid Insight Dutch pension funds, in 10 questions

Key takeaways• Dutch pension funds are key actors in the long-end of the EUR swaps curve, but they are also active across asset classes.

Further S&P 500 downside could trigger accelerated unwinds from CTAs

CTAs could be unwinding S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 longsOur CTA model showed trend follower longs in the NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 at

Key levels to watch: 4% rates & 50 on PMI

Economics: A goldilocks economyLast week, retail sales and industrial production surprised to the upside, dispelling fears

China: Fiscal weakness lingered in June; expecting government bond issuance to pick up in Q3

Bottom line:China’s on-budget fiscal revenue growth remained subdued in June, weighed onagain by falling tax revenue growth (especially VAT and corporate income tax),

US Equity Strategy Productivity: A Key Component to Earnings Resiliency

CITI'S TAKEThere are many forces at work in the US equity markets as we head into thebulk of the Q2 earnings season. Discerning macro from micro influenceswould seem to be a defining discussion point for the summer. All told, ourusual “sanity check"

US Semiconductors

CITI'S TAKEWe spent the last week meeting investors in New York/Connecticut. Interms ofinvestor sentiment -while NVDA remains the stock with the mostpositive sentiment, we believe AVGO is catchingup to NVDA. Investors werealso positive on NXPl and