海外研报

Weekly FX summary – 5 August 2024

quo on Wednesday. Mexico and India to stand pat on Thursday. China trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.

Cross-Asset Weekly

The financial market turbulences this week have highlighted that (1) macro risks are shifting from inflation to growth, (2) carry trades are vulnerable to sharp reversals in late cycle ear.

Slash and Burn

Macro jitters and vol spike clear out an "overgrown"' equity rally. After a summer rallyfueled mostly by multiple expansion, recession fears are back and motivated LOs to cutequity exposure to 2021 lows. At the same time, Treasury futures positions

GD--US ELECTION: MEXICO - BEYOND US ELECTION BLUES, USMCA CLOUDS LOOM

◼ No matter Trump or Harris, USMCA uncertainty + a post-AMLO hangover will weigh on Mexico’s sluggish GDP ahead of the mid-2026 USMCA review◼ Three overlapping hot-button issues – the border, China and trade – will dominate