海外研报
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Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks
We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.
海外研报
2024年08月19日
The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React
The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.
海外研报
2024年08月19日
US Daily: Renewed Progress on Recession Risk (Hatzius)
After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” weraised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have
海外研报
2024年08月19日
US Week Ahead: August 19 - August 25
The key economic data releases this week are the jobless claims and existing homesales reports on Thursday. The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Assessing the risks around our 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimates after a strong 2Q 2024 earnings season
The macro backdrop has distracted many investors from fully appreciating the strength of the 2Q earnings season. 56% of S&P 500 firms beat
海外研报
2024年08月19日
On Crude's Tug-Of-War
Bottom Line: A continued softening of oil demand will eventually intensifybearish pressures and pull the floor from beneath oil prices. But we probably arenot there yet..
海外研报
2024年08月20日
The US Fiscal OutlookIs Unsightly,But A Debt Crisis Is Not Inevitable
Executive SummaryInvestors have observed that pandemic spending materially worsened the USfiscal outlook and are asking our US strategists about it in nearly every meeting
海外研报
2024年08月20日
Q2 preview: bumpier path, same compelling destination
Blackwell transition could mute upside near-termMaintain Buy, top sector pick ahead of NVDA FQ2 (Jul) results due 28-Aug. Media reports
海外研报
2024年08月20日
