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Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Derivative Thinking

All attention this week will be on Jackson Hole, where the conference has been aptly titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We
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Retail Sales: Just Keep Spending

Retail sales in July well exceeded expectations. The beat in retail sales was broad-based and showed that consumption remains solid,
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A truer signal from the unemployment rate

Historically, a substantial rise in the unemployment rate has been associated with a recession. But changes in the unemployment rate can be amplified or damped by
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Apr-Jun GDP Quick Comment: Domestic Demand Recovery Reaffirmed

2024 reveal that real GDP growth came in at 3.1% SAAR, exceeding both the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% and our 2.6% prior forecast　(Japan Economics: Apr-Jun
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Global Macro Commentary | North America August 16 Morgan Stanley & Co.

Strong US data caps UST rally; solid UK retail sales sends gilts higher; RBNZ's Silk says contraction may be needed to lower
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The Consumer in Context

Our view has been that consumer spending would slow but not slump; so far that path has played out. Employment, wealth, and
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Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks

We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.
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The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React

The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.
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US Daily: Renewed Progress on Recession Risk (Hatzius)

After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” weraised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have
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US Week Ahead: August 19 - August 25

The key economic data releases this week are the jobless claims and existing homesales reports on Thursday. The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be
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