海外研报

European Week Ahead: August 5 - August 11

08:15 Spanish PMI - Composite, Jul F (consensus 54.7, last 55.8)08:15 Spanish PMI - Services, Jul F (consensus 55.5, last 56.8)

Trading Catalysts It’s the Fed now

Equities: Is the Fed put alive? The July jobs report came in below our goldilocks range for equities (+150K, +/- and financial markets indicate that the risk is no longer balanced between growth and

Big GBP unwind in broad risk-off

At present, the G10 FX PIX 2.0 signals that the AUD, NZD and NOK areoversold while the CHF and JPY are overbought. We have temporarily

The Bear Traps Report With Larry McDonald

“The beast inside the market now has the Fed in its grip. The serpent will demand FAR more

Americas Small Cap Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

US July jobs report: Broad-based weakening risks steeper cuts

• A sizable deceleration in payrolls and the fourth consecutive increase in the unemployment rate (which triggered the Sahm Rule) point

PANIC STATIONS!

1. Global recession risk, with CBs (perceived to be) behind the curve2. The unwind of the Yen carry trade (did BoJ hawkishness mark the top of

MARKETS CAN TAKE WEEKS TO REBOUND FROM A VOLATILITY SPIKE

Friday’s weak NFP print put recession risks front and centre. However, one disappointing payrolls release is notenough to declare one: (1) 114k new jobs are consistent with economic expansion; (2) cyclical sectors are still

CARRY TRADE HARD LANDING?

Japan’s balance sheet is hugely distorted by the years of excess accommodation. It was always a toss-up as to which fragility was going to break first – maturity or currency mismatch. In the end,

BOJ, FED, FUEL SURGE IN EM FX VOLATILITY

Fed and BoJ meetings have further raised EM FX volatility. Last week’s FOMC meeting was widely interpreted as confirming the market expectation that the funds rate will be cut in