海外研报

Yen facing cross-currents

The monetary policy convergence story is real - DB changed its Fed call to 3 cuts(previously 1) this year after the CPl print. While the Fed repricing over the comingyearortwo hasn't been huge (eg, 1y1yis still comfortably above thelows

GBP: mind the black hole

The GBP rally – which has come to define the G10 FX market so far this year –has lost momentum of late amidst returning risk aversion. The GBP has been

SALES COMMENTARY ONLY (NOT A PRODUCT OF RESEARCH)

While earnings are off to a strong start – 78% beating an already high “hurdle” and 2Q24 EPS estimates revised higher to +10.2% – mega cap tech results

Global equities lost 0.9%; Japan underperformed

Macro data this weekUS: The JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISMmanufacturing index on Thursday, and the employment

GOAL Kickstart Summer data-only update

This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or

China’s Third Plenum provides little support to metals

Last week’s key Communist Party meeting failed to lay out morepolicies to prop up demand for metals and we expect copper and

FX OutlookYen-maggedon

De-risking of crowded positions is different from amacro shock. There is not much evidence of the latterin recent strong dataflow, and recession models contin-ue to hover in benign territory.

Europe Non Research Other

From a curo perspeclive not much to say really, in all the vol elsewhere ifs hardly moved so dontto dedicate too much timeto it Al l wil say is that the EcB is silikely lo be chipping away on

MSFT Partner Survey; SMiD Internet; APPF, CFLT, QCOM, TENB, VRNS, XRX

The current market rotation appears to be in its final stages. Today, the market saw outperformance in Growth(.PGPURE) and Quality (.JPOPURE) sectors, indicating that the rotation is nearing its end. This rotation is primarilydriven by crowding

Tactical Derivatives Strategy

Strategy: We recommend bearish investors overlay their positions with aHSY Aug 30th $185/$175 strike 1x2 Put Spread, indicatively paying 0.8%option premiumvs $193.53 ref price, heading into F2Q'24 carnings(confirmed for August 1). Short