海外研报

BoJ to hike amid escalating inflation pressures

Recent inflation data should support Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Board members’ view that inflation is on track for 2% sustained growth.

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

Americas Small Cap Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

Week 3: risks of overinvesting in AI overinvestors

Half-time report: 3% beat, guidance improves for large206 S&P 500 companies (46% of index EPS) have reported, beating consensus EPS by

Commodities Technical Advantage Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an end

View: Oil’s Bermuda triangle is nearing an endOil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year

An unlikely source of mid-weekvolatility

Financial markets had a volatile day on Wednesday, with Treasuries performingpoorly. There were various factors to point to for the volatility(weak Eurozone PMlsdovish Dudleyarticle, soft5yauction), butoneunlikely source ofthis volatility mighthave

BoJ: why this time is different

We calculate z-scores (using 1990-2019 as our sample) for four key measures ofunderlying inflation: (1) Shunto (wages), (2) core-core CPl adjusted for changes inconsumption taxes, and (3-4) price expectations series from surveys that haveproved to

Global Fixed incomeWeekly

Similarly to USD, front-end HICPxT pricing is broadly in line with our economistsforecasts on the 1y with some slight upside over the coming months. 10y HICPcurrentlytrades slightly cheap compared to our macro model (~10bps). The 5s10sHlCP curve

Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet

Equitypositioningisdown butnotlow, Even afterthe sharp drop this weekoverall equitypositioning is still well above average. it is also slightlyabovelevels implied byQ2 earnings growth which looks to be tracking just above10%so farthisseason, leavingroom

US rates forecast update

The resulting baseline forecast has the 10y UST yield at 4.25% at year-end, withyields across the curve modestly above forwards.The forecastgenerally sees front.end spreads (2s5s) a bit flatter than forwards, reflecting a more gradual pace of