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Maintaining our S&P 500 target of 5400, rotation is where the action is

Neutral on index, bullish on internalsOur market timing signals have downshifted from bullish to neutral. In mid 2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic
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Risk-reward still more favorable for cyclicals

Economics: The economy continues to defy its skepticsLast week, 2Q GDP surprised to the upside, signaling that even if the economy has slowed, it is still meeting its potential. This week, the focus will likely be on the Fed and
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Strong FCF generation to drive c.13% SH returns in 2024E, with 10% DPS increase; Buy

BP reported broadly in-line 2Q24 results this morning (July 30), withRC operating profit at US$5,414 mn, 2% below company-compiled
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Summertime unwind?

Macro focus: Notwithstanding supportive fundamentals and burgeoning rate cuts across the EM complex, a more open US election is an ongoing source of EM
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Euro Area: German Headline Inflation Beats Expectations

BOTTOM LINE: German headline HICP inflation was 2.60%yoy in July, in line withour tracking forecast and above consensus expectations of 2.5%yoy, up from
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Euro Area: Q2 GDP Above Consensus But Germany Slows Down

BOTTOM LINE: According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, Euro area realGDP increased 0.3%qoq in Q2 2024, above consensus expectations for a 0.2%qoq
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G10 Consumer Dashboard: July 2024: Subdued Spending Despite Solid Fundamentals (Pierdomenico)

On the positive side, consumers continue to benefit from generally tight labormarkets in all economies. Since we last published the dashboard, the
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The message of a bond market

It is almost comical. Just as Wall Street and mainstream media became convinced that Donald Trump is the next US president, Joe Biden’s withdrawal and the sudden rush to gather around Vice President Kamala Harris
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FOMC preview

We and consensus expect no policy changes at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. Instead, the more interesting development will be any tweaks to
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Argentina Oil & Gas Model Update

See page 14 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
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