海外研报

Global FX Strategy What if RFK Jr. joins Trump’s campaign?

CITI’S TAKE Nicole Shanahan – RFK Jr.’s running mate – suggested today that their campaign could join Donald Trump as one of two options (the other is

FOMC – Very dovish minutes open door to 50bps cuts

ImplicationsThe minutes suggest that Powell will take a very dovish tone at the Jackson Hole meeting. There are many dovish references to “almost all” or the “vast majority” of participants. If

Positioning across emerging markets following the recent market volatility

Macro focus: The deterioration in market sentiment over the past few weeks caused an aggressive sell-off in risk assets following a recalibration of growth

The VIEW Asia's Bond Markets

This month's Overview is a primer on Panda bonds, RMB-denominated bonds issued byoffshore entities in China's domestic market. Gross issuance rose 82% in 2023 to a recordRMB154bn, and 2024 is on course to be another big year, We explore

Global Rates ldeas

Reiterate UST 5Y-2Y flattenerPage 3A rapid repricing of Fed easing expectations has resulted in substantial steepeningbeing priced into the Treasury curve; we think this presents a near-term opportunityto further harvest carry and reiterate our tactical

Indonesia: BI to Focus on IDR Strength in Q3, Sees Room to Cut in Q4

Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%. The deposit and lendingfacility rates were also kept at 5.50% and 7.00%, respectively. Today’s decision was

Global Macro Insight

Data releases over the past month have underscored our expectation that the FOMC will start to reduce policy restriction from September (-25bp).

July FOMC minutes highlightedlabor market risks

The minutes to the July 30-31 FOMC meeting (which occurred just before therelease ofthe weak Julylaborreport)skewed dovish and showeda committee morefocused on labor market risks than the possibility of a renewed jump in inflationeven if

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Globally, we expect real GDP growth of 2.7% yoy in 2024, reflecting tailwindsfrom real household income growth, a gradual recovery in manufacturing activity,

Our Top Stock Picks - North America Research

A Summer of Uncertainty. This summer has been characterized by macro uncertainty with data surprising to both the downside and upside. The market has