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The US Fiscal OutlookIs Unsightly,But A Debt Crisis Is Not Inevitable

Executive SummaryInvestors have observed that pandemic spending materially worsened the USfiscal outlook and are asking our US strategists about it in nearly every meeting
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Q2 preview: bumpier path, same compelling destination

Blackwell transition could mute upside near-termMaintain Buy, top sector pick ahead of NVDA FQ2 (Jul) results due 28-Aug. Media reports
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Regime Indicator weakened, Recovery in question

Regime Indicator slips. Downturn next?Our US Regime Indicator declined in July for the first time since December 2023,
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Trading Catalysts Eyes on Jackson Hole, minds on NVDA

Economics: Slow and steadyThe message from last week’s data was clear: inflation is soft enough for the Fed to
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Tail wags dog as rate hike expectations fade despite hawkish rate increase

The BoJ increased its policy rate to 0.25% at the July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting when the market was not expecting it and also emphasized its intention to
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Data pushes back against 50bp September cut

A fed-focused week lies ahead with the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in the spotlight, along with the minutes from the July FOMC
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Confidence Game-Global Daily

As we approach the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week the message from Fed speakers, broadly, has been that they are gaining confidence that the economy is reaching the point where
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Market expectations of the Fed's labormarket reaction

Today's chart explores how these changes as well as other dynamics over recentyears may have affected market expectations of the FOMC's reaction to the labormarket, drawing onaspecialquestiontheNYFed periodicallyincludesin
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The Treasury cash-futures basis ischeap

The reason for these high expected returns-or, put slightly differently, thecheapness of the Treasury basis -likely stems from the recent increase in marketvolatility and ongoing concerns about funding pressure. As the chart shows,
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The yen carry trade-what if Japaninstitutions decide to unwind?

Public pension funds. lhe GPlF is the big one here, with other smallerfunds believed to generally follow its lead. There's a growing view that theGPIFcould cutforeign bond exposure when it announces its next policy mixin 2025.
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