海外研报

BofA Securities Equity Client Flow Trends Third week of equity selling

Institutional clients continue to sell equities• Single stock-led selling: Last week, during which the S&P 500 was -0.8%, BofA Securities clients were net sellers of US equities (-$3.3B) for the third straight

Week 3: risks of overinvesting in AI overinvestors

Half-time report: 3% beat, guidance improves for large206 S&P 500 companies (46% of index EPS) have reported, beating consensus EPS by

Emerging Insight The Great Divides in USD/CNY

Key takeaways• As the focus on USD vs. CNY valuation and trade intensifies, we take a broader look at key macro charts.

FX Viewpoint USD: Cool data, hot politics

Key takeaways• Cooling US data and Fed-speak has brought forward cut pricing and weighed on the USD. We expect more depreciation in H2.

FX Watch Where to fade the JPY rally

Cross-JPY pairs have been in secular uptrends since the start of the current rate cycle in 2021, and drawdowns to 100d SMA have been common. On average, major G10/JPY

Macro Risk Digest Lingering risks

Top of mind: hedging fiscal worries Fiscal concerns have increased in the US and Europe: we outline the key macro

Maintaining our S&P 500 target of 5400, rotation is where the action is

Neutral on index, bullish on internalsOur market timing signals have downshifted from bullish to neutral. In mid 2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic

Risk-reward still more favorable for cyclicals

Economics: The economy continues to defy its skepticsLast week, 2Q GDP surprised to the upside, signaling that even if the economy has slowed, it is still meeting its potential. This week, the focus will likely be on the Fed and

Strong FCF generation to drive c.13% SH returns in 2024E, with 10% DPS increase; Buy

BP reported broadly in-line 2Q24 results this morning (July 30), withRC operating profit at US$5,414 mn, 2% below company-compiled

Summertime unwind?

Macro focus: Notwithstanding supportive fundamentals and burgeoning rate cuts across the EM complex, a more open US election is an ongoing source of EM