海外研报

Despite the Heat, the Animal Spirits are Cooling Off

Stormy Spirits Ahead?Our Animal Spirits Index (ASI) fell in June to 0.53 from 0.88 in May but has remained positive in all six months of 2024 (chart). Previous reports detail the index's methodology, but on a basic level, an

The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Capex Beneficiaries

The US presidential election is re-shaping the Europeanequity market. While markets have just started to fadeEuropean political risk, the US presidential election on

Sizing the Very Uncertain Increase in Trade Policy Uncertainty (Briggs/Pierdomenico)

US Presidential candidate Donald Trump has signaled that he will likelyimplement significant tariffs if elected, raising risks that a sharp increase in trade

Global Rates Trader Policy Path Dependent

While US election risk is an inescapable focus in rates market discussions, the lastmonth has revealed the difficulty building clear momentum in trading the eventualoutcome.

Healthcare Pulse: Shifts Now Afoot... Investor sentiment

The title of our last weekly, “Strap-In” was a grossunderstatement for the epic momentum reversal thatensued this week

Weekly Equity Market Commentary & Conviction Calls

With 2Q earnings season in full swing, the recent rally seen in USequities cooled slightly this week. As evidenced by the

Shifting narrative and market implications

We hosted the fifh installment ofthe Strategic Research 2024 US Election Watchseries on July 17, featuring IP, Morgan researchers who discussed the keytakeaways, firom meetings duringour recent trip to Washington, D,C, The meetingsin

The retail impulse into US equities has been globa!

We mentioned several times in our publication the big role US retail investorshave been playing over the past year in propagating the US equity market. Thebullishness ofUS retail investors has been manifesting across several metrics.In een

US Weekly Prospects

The soft landing story has been gaining inereasing credibilityin recent weeks. lfanything, some of the growth data hadbcen suggesting activity was slowing more than would bedesirable.

Know When to Fold ‘Em?

Former President Trump is no longer the “presumptive” nominee and is now the official nominee. J.D. Vance is his official running mate. While the Republican ticket has been finalized