海外研报

Week 3: risks of overinvesting in AI overinvestors

Half-time report: 3% beat, guidance improves for large206 S&P 500 companies (46% of index EPS) have reported, beating consensus EPS by

Emerging Insight The Great Divides in USD/CNY

Key takeaways• As the focus on USD vs. CNY valuation and trade intensifies, we take a broader look at key macro charts.

Macro Risk Digest Lingering risks

Top of mind: hedging fiscal worries Fiscal concerns have increased in the US and Europe: we outline the key macro

Maintaining our S&P 500 target of 5400, rotation is where the action is

Neutral on index, bullish on internalsOur market timing signals have downshifted from bullish to neutral. In mid 2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic

Risk-reward still more favorable for cyclicals

Economics: The economy continues to defy its skepticsLast week, 2Q GDP surprised to the upside, signaling that even if the economy has slowed, it is still meeting its potential. This week, the focus will likely be on the Fed and

Summertime unwind?

Macro focus: Notwithstanding supportive fundamentals and burgeoning rate cuts across the EM complex, a more open US election is an ongoing source of EM

Euro Area: German Headline Inflation Beats Expectations

BOTTOM LINE: German headline HICP inflation was 2.60%yoy in July, in line withour tracking forecast and above consensus expectations of 2.5%yoy, up from

Euro Area: Q2 GDP Above Consensus But Germany Slows Down

BOTTOM LINE: According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, Euro area realGDP increased 0.3%qoq in Q2 2024, above consensus expectations for a 0.2%qoq

G10 Consumer Dashboard: July 2024: Subdued Spending Despite Solid Fundamentals (Pierdomenico)

On the positive side, consumers continue to benefit from generally tight labormarkets in all economies. Since we last published the dashboard, the

The message of a bond market

It is almost comical. Just as Wall Street and mainstream media became convinced that Donald Trump is the next US president, Joe Biden’s withdrawal and the sudden rush to gather around Vice President Kamala Harris