海外研报

IS TRUMP UNSTOPPABLE?

With markets pricing in surging odds of a Trump win (~67%) and a rising Republican sweep of Congress, a top investor question today is: What, if anything, could thwart a red wave ahead?

Weekly Teller: Initial 2Q takeaways

Initial 2Q reports: Mixed but fine for creditNotwithstanding top and bottom line beats (vs. consensus est.) by each of the fourbanks reporting on Friday, equity reactions were generally weaker on concerns about net

China: FX outflows accelerated in June

Our preferred FX flow measure shows larger FX outflows of US$69bn in June 2024,vs. US$32bn outflows in May. The current account channel showed faster outflows

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

OVERNIGHT BRIEFUS/EU trade: European Equities closed lower (SXXP -0.5%, $X5E -1.2%, V2X +0.7pts) with AEX(-1.8%) and UKX (0.3%) the best and worst regions. Tech (-4.5%, -3.6z) fell mostly because ofSemis

Won’t be as easy next time

In a rare display of steadiness, yesterday’s packed calendar went mostly according to expectation, which is a welcome change after the past six weeks. The ECB left

SAUDI KEY TO TRUMP OIL TRADE

Talk of ‘Trump trades’ has become more fashionable than ever since last weekend’s failed assassination attempt on the Republican nominee – but most such talk is inconclusive. The

Weekly Equity Market Commentary & Conviction Calls

With 2Q earnings season in full swing, the recent rally seen in USequities cooled slightly this week. As evidenced by the

Emerging Markets Asia: June 2024

Asia ex-China’s net portfolio inflows rose to USD10.9bn in June 2024 from USD7.5bn in May. Lower inflation numbers in the US kept the hope of Fed

Bank of Korea: preparing for a Q4 pivot

The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% was unanimous, but its forward guidance has turned incrementally more dovish as anticipated.

USA | Equity Strategy

We updated our Manager Holdings for Long Only investors, and it hadimplications for a number of Hedge Fund portfolios. We updated Uber Crowded,