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A truer signal from the unemployment rate
Historically, a substantial rise in the unemployment rate has been associated with a recession. But changes in the unemployment rate can be amplified or damped by
海外研报
2024年08月19日
US Labor Market: Cracks Beneath The Surface
The US unemployment rate has clocked in below 4.5% for 33 consecutive months. However, this historicallylow rate camouflages nascent cracks in the US labor market.
海外研报
2024年08月20日
Regime Indicator weakened, Recovery in question
Regime Indicator slips. Downturn next?Our US Regime Indicator declined in July for the first time since December 2023,
海外研报
2024年08月20日
Market expectations of the Fed's labormarket reaction
Today's chart explores how these changes as well as other dynamics over recentyears may have affected market expectations of the FOMC's reaction to the labormarket, drawing onaspecialquestiontheNYFed periodicallyincludesin
海外研报
2024年08月20日
The yen carry trade-what if Japaninstitutions decide to unwind?
Public pension funds. lhe GPlF is the big one here, with other smallerfunds believed to generally follow its lead. There's a growing view that theGPIFcould cutforeign bond exposure when it announces its next policy mixin 2025.
海外研报
2024年08月20日
What Companies Are Saying: StillWaiting And Seeing
Companies broadly report steady growth butnota lotofupward momentum as theyand their customers are still in a pervasive wait and see loop given lingeringuncertainties around inflation, interest rates, domestic politics, elections,
海外研报
2024年08月20日
The Major bond letter Free to View Fixed Income - Rates Global #52. Turning points
Head fake or the real thing? The question bond investors and traders are debating today is whether the events of the last few weeks will mark a decisive turning point
海外研报
2024年08月20日
Is the VlX spike a signal of wider credit spreadsahead?
A key debate last week was whether equities were sending a signal for creditThe massive spikes in cross-asset volatility in early August (e.g., 2, 4, 5 sigma moves in1Oyr USTs, IPYUSD, and VlX) have left investors actively
海外研报
2024年08月20日
