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Weekly Warm-up: Valuations Matter and Defensive Quality Is Still the Best Option

Markets are looking for better growth or more policy support to get excited again. We don't see confirming evidence in either
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G7 and BIC outlook

Although the labor market has cooled substantially, there is not enough evidence of recession in the near-term.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST experienced a steep down move after break below multi-month ascending trend line and recently revisited May 2023 low of
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Gold to get its medal

The Fed’s cutting cycle, when it begins, will attract strategic investment in gold. We have lifted our year-end price target for gold to USD2,550/oz.
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Taking stock after the surge in market volatility

Deeper DiveMarkets have given investors a rollercoaster ride over the past week. Arisk-off move in markets gathered pace at the start of last week as an
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Yen Carry And AI Bubble: One And The Same Trade

The analysis of price complexity strongly suggests that the ‘yen carry trade’ and the AI bubble are one and the same trade, premised on three conditions:
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Labor Market Trumps inflation Right Now (For BondYields)

US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measureremained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fel0.2% m/m.
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What about Trump and China?

According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump's brand, legacy, and populist movementare based on the
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Japan: accommodative monetary policy to continue under the new prime minister

The failure to stop the BoJ from forcing rate hikes that led to global market turmoil further weakened the political centripetal force of the
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Cross Asset Volatility Machine Learning Based Trade Recommendations

Global market were fairly stable just a week after the panic selling. Both the CARV and ETF RV models maintain a short vol bias, which is not that
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