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Americas Small Cap Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on
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MARKETS CAN TAKE WEEKS TO REBOUND FROM A VOLATILITY SPIKE

Friday’s weak NFP print put recession risks front and centre. However, one disappointing payrolls release is notenough to declare one: (1) 114k new jobs are consistent with economic expansion; (2) cyclical sectors are still
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RECESSION APPEARS INEVITABLE BY YEAR- END, UNLESS THE FED CUTS (THEY WILL)

The search is on for indications that the economy is heading towards recession if the Fed fails to act sooner than later – not for indicators of recession itself. The softening data that are rolling
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Will the great unwind continue?

Market HighlightsMonday 5 August was a monumental day for markets. The Nikkei fell 12% which was the largest 1 day decline since 1987, the S&P500 fell 3% to end the day with the largest intra-day
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Japan: Contextualizing the NKY’s second largest 1-day decline on record

KEY MESSAGES▪ The Nikkei 225’s second largest one-day decline on record (-12.4%) on Monday underscores the large portfolio liquidation pressure
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FX Model Trend & Strategy

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the
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HOW INVESTABLE IS EUROPE?

Just as Europe emerged from two years of stagnation, weak survey data, increased political risk, and structural issues have put the region’s outlook back in question. So,
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Strategy Trade

RationaleOur short GBP/JPY has traded above our dynamic trailing stop at 185.80. As such, we take profit on the original trade (opened at 199.50 on 24 July) with a gain of 6.9%. We still
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USD/JPY: We lower our near-term forecast

cut rates substantially / Will Japanese investors accelerate JPY appreciation?USD/JPY corrected to the 142-143 range for a while today, apparently reflecting the
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FADE THE RECESSION NARRATIVE

The market has been hypersensitive to negative economic surprises because of the extent to which GDP growth and earnings expectations have been ratcheted up over the course of this
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