海外研报

Change in Fed call: Three 25bp cuts this year

With this morning's weaker-than-expected labor market report,we now expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25bp three times this

Quicker labour market cooling could mean more aggressive Fed

A much quieter calendar lies ahead for the coming week, highlighted by ISM services and the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey (SLOOS).

Rate Cuts and Recession Risk After the July Employment Report

The July employment report was weak across the board, with soft gains in bothpayroll and household employment and another 0.2pp increase in the

Obvious trend damage but breadth improves

• Background macro factors like disposable personal income growth

Weekly Warm-up: Defensive Leadership Fully Emerges as Growth Concerns Increase

Macro Risks Rise... While the macro data suggest the consumer is slowing but ok, the jobs data on Friday challenged the soft-landing view for some

Trading Catalysts It’s the Fed now

Equities: Is the Fed put alive? The July jobs report came in below our goldilocks range for equities (+150K, +/- and financial markets indicate that the risk is no longer balanced between growth and

CARRY TRADE HARD LANDING?

Japan’s balance sheet is hugely distorted by the years of excess accommodation. It was always a toss-up as to which fragility was going to break first – maturity or currency mismatch. In the end,

BOJ, FED, FUEL SURGE IN EM FX VOLATILITY

Fed and BoJ meetings have further raised EM FX volatility. Last week’s FOMC meeting was widely interpreted as confirming the market expectation that the funds rate will be cut in

Asia-Pacific Growth Monitor: EM Asia growth holding up, but factory surveys slow

This publication summarizes regional and country-specific growth data acrossthe Asia-Pacific economies we cover. In most cases, the latest data points are