海外研报

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 19, 2024

The case for Fed rate cuts strengthens as elections loom: o US economic data softened further in June: § Trimmed-mean PCE inflation has returned to 2% on a 3-month

US Weekly Kickstart

Small-caps just posted the most powerful weekly return vs. large-caps on record. Against a backdrop of extreme equity market concentration, four

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary

United States: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S.• Retail sales, housing starts and industrial production all surprised to the upside this week. Yet, an

Machine Learning Based Trade Recommendations

The CARV model continues the short vol bias in Fixed Income and Credit,while shifting to a long vol bias for most Commodities, led by WTl andprecious metals. In Equities, NlFTY had

Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Labour at Dawn

The incoming Labour government will inherit a UK economy that, by many measures, has underperformed sharply. Since 2010, the UK has grown ~10% less

The US consumer-should we be worried?

Consumer is moderating, not pulling back, The US consumer is and has been theengine behind economic growth. As rates stay higher for longer, the strength of theUS consumer is coming into

Europe Non Research Other

All about the US inflation print this alernoon and i willtake my lead from there. The market feels as though it wanls to embrace alower USD and if the print is sot (rounding will also be important today)

Equity Strategy

While the S&P500 was powered again this year by Mag-7, the cqual weightedindex -SPW, is up a more modest 6%, having peaked in March., Likewise,SXSE has also peaked in March - top chart. Indeed, the historical spreadbetween the performance ofS&P500

Land of the rising equities and bond yields — a look at cross-asset moves in Japan

Last week a softer-than-expected CPI print pushed forwardrate cut expectations and prompted one of the largest

Consumption and income growth slowed; consumer confidence deteriorated

n Spending: Chinese household consumption growth measured in year-over-yearterms slowed notably to 5.0% yoy in Q2 2024 from 8.3% yoy in Q1. On a