海外研报

The Buffalo Is Back

While economic surprises have been negative lately, leading indicators and easing global central-bank policies point to the slow global expansion gaining traction in the second half of 2024 and 2025.

Global Fund Manager Survey In Soft We Trust

BofA July Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: FMS investors remain bullish driven by Fed rate cuts & soft landing; July

Weekly Rail Carload Snapshot — Week 28

Total traffic results for US Class I rails under coverage imply carload growthat +0.9% YoY in week 28, a deceleration versus +4.1% YoY in week 27.

Preview: have your hike and eat it too

We now expect the ECB to hike its rates by 75bp at its September meeting. Despite our natural dovishness, we have been pencilling in this

Housing recovery continues, driven by low supply.

Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together

Third Plenum points to more support

China concluded its Third Plenum meeting for long-term economic plans, and thecommunique possibly signaled more stimulus to support the economy, while

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

The Flow Show 100% + 75% = peak 68%

Scores on the Doors: crypto 36.2%, gold 17.6%, oil 14.6%, stocks 13.8%, commodities 7.4%, HY bonds 4.5%, cash 2.9%, US dollar 2.8%, IG bonds 1.3%, govt bonds -3.0% YTD.

Commodity Tracker: mixed signals

Mobility indicators are showing strong seasonal demand. Jet fuel remains a bright spot for oil demand. However, China’s oil demand data is yet to improve. Imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year, and refinery run rates remain low.

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 19, 2024

The case for Fed rate cuts strengthens as elections loom: o US economic data softened further in June: § Trimmed-mean PCE inflation has returned to 2% on a 3-month