海外研报

ECB—Holds Rate and Emphasises Data-Dependence

BOTTOM LINE: The Governing Council left all policy parameters and the formalguidance unchanged, as widely expected. During the press conference, President

The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year. n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible

Global Rates Trader Front-end tipping point

Stars align for Fed cuts, tailwind for G10 front-end flatteners. Six months agothe US rates market embedded nearly 175bp of cuts for the year and the prospect of

GS DOT budget tracker points to slowing state infrastructure spending plans in 2026+

As part of our GS US Infrastructure toolkit, we conducted our annual update ofall 50 US state transportation budgets, which revealed:

Prefer US to China exposure

side, several large companies have reduced their guidancedue to weakness coming from China (L’Oreal lowered its

This is Non-Independent Research

The June US CPI report provided another piece of evidence that the disinflation theme has resumed in the US and provided another boost to the Fed’s doves. Headline fell 0.1%MoM, driven by softer core CPI number

Interest Rates Daily

June CPI surprised to the downside, solidly below expectations for both headline and core measures. Headline fell -0.1% MoM (consensus +0.1%), slightly down

Thematic Research

Several key economic indicators are due next week across the major economies, including retail sales in the US, inflation in the UK and Japan, as well as Q2 GDP

Quarterly Market Review

The economic momentum of the first quarter of 2024 continued into the second, and the last three months were another positive period for equity markets. Initially, investors aggressively

Americas Construction: Building Products: AHAM Read-Throughs

2Q24 T-6 Volumes Up 2% YOY: This compares to a 6% decrease in 1Q and flat ayear ago. We note shipments improved through the quarter against easing