海外研报

Endorses Vice President Harris; Democrats’ Odds of Winning the White House Edge Up Slightly

BOTTOM LINE: President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris’ prediction market-implied

Supply and Cash Flow Monitors

 EUR22.5bn gross supply and EUR0.9bn net supply on the back of bigBTP redemptions and Bunds coupons. On offer new 10Y Bund, Green Bunds tap, LT OAT, SPGB (new 7Y) /

June US CPI Inflation preview: Further progress

CPI to increase Fed’s confidence on disinflationWe expect the June CPI report to be another confidence builder following the undeniably good May report. We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.1% m/m (0.11% unrounded) owing

Thoughts ahead of June quarter-end earnings

Hockey sticks get iced; volume recovery less robustMost companies across our consumer staples coverage universe began the year expecting volumes to improve while pricing fades as a building block to organic sales

MACRO TRENDS CHARTBOOOK

With nominal growth in the major global economies not only slowing down to below 20y average (4.9% yoyin Q1-24 or -0.3z) but also with a more compressed distribution than in the pre-Covid period, monetary

We Forecast Core PCE at 0.16% After PPI

We now forecast core PCE inflation for June at 0.16% vs. 0.08%M in May. Headline is forecasted at 0.07% vs. -0.01%M the month prior. We expect the Y/Y

DeskTalk - Macro whispers of Trump 2.0 trades

US Treasuries are opening lower after a holiday in Tokyo. 2s10s curve is bull steepening though the move is likelyto be contained ahead of Fed Chair Powell's interview today. That said, our rates strategists think momentum, weak

DB CoTD: The greatest rotation...

Yesterday was a fascinating day for US equities. 396 of the S&P 500 were up on the day, the equal weighted index rose +1.17%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index

Deconstructing the recent rally – and what’s next

Greater confidence in rate cuts? Check. Now: EPS in focusFollowing last week’s inflation data, small caps saw the biggest four-day rally since