海外研报

Back Up To Moderately Overweight

After the abrupt cut to underweight last week,our measure ofaggregateequity positioning bounced to turn moderately overweight again (z score0.33, 63rd percentilel, but is still well below the mid-July highs at the top ofthe historical band. Discretionary

G10 Cuts Broaden as Data Stabilize

Activity data since the July NFP release have steadily chipped away at fears that theUS economy is rolling over. Cooperative inflation news solidified an already robust

Healthcare Pulse: The Backdrop Into August’s Dog Days...

n Alongside all the macro ping-pong of the last severalweeks, the performance trajectory of the HC sector can

TOPIX rises 7.9% wow, continuing its recovery from the recent steep fall

Summary of the weekTOPIX: 2,678.60 (7.9%) / NK225: 38,062.67 (8.7%)

Retail Sales: Just Keep Spending

Retail sales in July well exceeded expectations. The beat in retail sales was broad-based and showed that consumption remains solid,

Apr-Jun GDP Quick Comment: Domestic Demand Recovery Reaffirmed

2024 reveal that real GDP growth came in at 3.1% SAAR, exceeding both the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% and our 2.6% prior forecast (Japan Economics: Apr-Jun

Global Macro Commentary | North America August 16 Morgan Stanley & Co.

Strong US data caps UST rally; solid UK retail sales sends gilts higher; RBNZ's Silk says contraction may be needed to lower

The Consumer in Context

Our view has been that consumer spending would slow but not slump; so far that path has played out. Employment, wealth, and

The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React

The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.

US Daily: Renewed Progress on Recession Risk (Hatzius)

After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” weraised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have