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Global Economics Wrap-Up: August 2, 2024

Former US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are likely to accelerateshifts in the allocation of global trade:o We use product-level variation in tariff rates and trade patterns to estimate
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Global FX Trader Running Late?

USD: Far enough; go short EUR/USD. Our economists think the Julyemployment report likely overstates the rate at which the labor market isloosening,
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GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - August 2, 2024

Central bank round-up: Japan hikes, the UK cuts, and the US holds steady (for now)n The BoJ raised rates by 25bp and announced plans to curb QE programs as it
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1QFY25 earnings improved this week with beats ahead of misses

Performance: NIFTY closed flat w/w. Energy, Pharmaled (up 1-3%), while Property, IT lagged (down 3-4%).
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A Question of Pace

With the cutting cycle set to start in September as expected, the pace of further cuts is now the debate. Markets are pricing more
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WBD & PARA Credit: Another 'Spin' on Our Cautious Views

Sizable spread moves since mid-July, first idiosyncratic and then more market-driven, warrant a refresh of our views and trades.
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The Fed Dot Plod

Suddenly everyone is raising the number of Fed cuts this year and early next year. Without a doubt Friday’s job report was Weak with Few Redeeming Qualities. While we argued that the Fed SHOULD
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Trade Close: Close Options Recommendation

We close our recommendation to buy SO calls. We close our 31-July, 2024recommendation to buy SO 9-Aug Weekly $84 calls at a gain following their
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UK Weekly Kickstart Summer data-only update

MSCI disclosureAll MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI,
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The US consumer today vs. tomorrow through the lens of micro company and macroeconomic datapoints

The July jobs report showed a larger-than-expected deterioration in the US labor market. Investor concerns over the health of the US consumer have
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