海外研报

Interest Rates Daily

The short-lived US GDP sell off could not derail easing expectations, but pressure mounts on next week’s releases.  The 2.50% floor for the ECB endpoint should hold,

UK Weekly Kickstart A rotation that favours the UK

Is the UK finally outperforming? Yes, the UK hasoutperformed in the recent global equity market setback,although the biggest rotation has been into the Russell2000/small caps in the US.

Whatever it takes: the 12th anniversary

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of crisis, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of spreads, it was the

US growth pick-up but dimmer Europe outlook

US election: Harris steps in, but Trump still more likelyWhile the prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House

China: Industrial profits rose sequentially in June

China’s industrial profits and revenue rose by 3.9% yoy and 2.9% yoy, respectively,in June, from +0.5% yoy and +4.1% yoy in May. In sequential terms, industrial

US growth pick-up but dimmer Europe outlook

US election: Harris steps in, but Trump still more likelyWhile the prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House

New Candidate, Same Implications

To project the impact of elections on the markets, we typically frame scenarios. But we could never have dreamed up the truly wild month we just went

Navigating a Noisy Election

Prepare for more noise than signal. Uncertainty is high for election results & the macro impacts of key policy choices. We see value in key equity sectors, a skew toward USD &

Still See a Soft Landing

We believe that fears of a hard landing remain overdone. Two weeks ago, Ellen wrote that we continue to see data consistent with a soft landing. This week’s data brought

2024 US Elections – An Early Guide

With Election Day 334 days away, it's likely much will change re: the drivers of the outcome & their market impact.