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The Yen Carry Trade—A Roadblock to BoJ Hikes, Not Fed Cuts (Fishman/Kanter)

The recent sharp appreciation of the Yen coinciding with a spike in cross-assetvolatility has heightened the focus on the “Yen carry trade” and the broader
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What Determines Cross-Country Differences in r*? (Daly)

The neutral real rate (r*) – the equilibrium real policy rate that is neitherstimulatory nor contractionary, consistent with output at potential and stable
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How much does credit card delinquency matter for spending?

Beware clickbaitRecent releases of the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
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Weekly Warm-up: Valuations Matter and Defensive Quality Is Still the Best Option

Markets are looking for better growth or more policy support to get excited again. We don't see confirming evidence in either
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G7 and BIC outlook

Although the labor market has cooled substantially, there is not enough evidence of recession in the near-term.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

2y UST experienced a steep down move after break below multi-month ascending trend line and recently revisited May 2023 low of
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Gold to get its medal

The Fed’s cutting cycle, when it begins, will attract strategic investment in gold. We have lifted our year-end price target for gold to USD2,550/oz.
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Taking stock after the surge in market volatility

Deeper DiveMarkets have given investors a rollercoaster ride over the past week. Arisk-off move in markets gathered pace at the start of last week as an
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Labor Market Trumps inflation Right Now (For BondYields)

US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measureremained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fel0.2% m/m.
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What about Trump and China?

According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump's brand, legacy, and populist movementare based on the
海外研报