海外研报

Global Rates Trader Front-end tipping point

Stars align for Fed cuts, tailwind for G10 front-end flatteners. Six months agothe US rates market embedded nearly 175bp of cuts for the year and the prospect of

GS DOT budget tracker points to slowing state infrastructure spending plans in 2026+

As part of our GS US Infrastructure toolkit, we conducted our annual update ofall 50 US state transportation budgets, which revealed:

Supply and Cash Flow Monitors

 EUR22.5bn gross supply and EUR0.9bn net supply on the back of bigBTP redemptions and Bunds coupons. On offer new 10Y Bund, Green Bunds tap, LT OAT, SPGB (new 7Y) /

June US CPI Inflation preview: Further progress

CPI to increase Fed’s confidence on disinflationWe expect the June CPI report to be another confidence builder following the undeniably good May report. We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.1% m/m (0.11% unrounded) owing

Thoughts ahead of June quarter-end earnings

Hockey sticks get iced; volume recovery less robustMost companies across our consumer staples coverage universe began the year expecting volumes to improve while pricing fades as a building block to organic sales

MACRO TRENDS CHARTBOOOK

With nominal growth in the major global economies not only slowing down to below 20y average (4.9% yoyin Q1-24 or -0.3z) but also with a more compressed distribution than in the pre-Covid period, monetary

We Forecast Core PCE at 0.16% After PPI

We now forecast core PCE inflation for June at 0.16% vs. 0.08%M in May. Headline is forecasted at 0.07% vs. -0.01%M the month prior. We expect the Y/Y

DeskTalk - Macro whispers of Trump 2.0 trades

US Treasuries are opening lower after a holiday in Tokyo. 2s10s curve is bull steepening though the move is likelyto be contained ahead of Fed Chair Powell's interview today. That said, our rates strategists think momentum, weak

DB CoTD: The greatest rotation...

Yesterday was a fascinating day for US equities. 396 of the S&P 500 were up on the day, the equal weighted index rose +1.17%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index