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US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MACRO WEEK AHEAD WEEK OF AUGUST 12,2024

ECONOMICSAUG 12 - NY Fed 1-Yr infiation Expectations at 11am ET. Monthly Budget Stalement at2pm ET.AUG 13 - NFlB $mall Business Optimism at 6am ET. PPl and Core PPl at 8:30am ET.AUG 14-

THE UK ECONOMIC MONITOR

July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-tomonth, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.

Some relief, however the risks still remain

The market began the week with a broad-based risk-off sentiment on Monday, and the continued carry trade unwinding pushed the USD/JPY and USD/CNY

How Deep Will The Recession Be?

According to BCA Research's Global investment Strategy service, the next US recession will not beparticularly deep. However, our colleagues do not buy that structural imbalances are so slight that the USeconomy will avert a downturn

ISM Services PMl At Odds With ManufacturingCounterpart

The lSM services PMl surprised positively in july. The headline index expanded 2.6 ppts to 51.4, reversingMay's fastest pace of contraction in four years.

Cross-Asset Weekly

The financial market turbulences this week have highlighted that (1) macro risks are shifting from inflation to growth, (2) carry trades are vulnerable to sharp reversals in late cycle ear.