海外研报

European Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 21 – 26 July

Full focus on US 2Q GDP and PCEWe expect the advance estimate of 2Q GDP to come in at 2.3% qoq saar on the back of a strong consumer, with risks to the downside. Meanwhile, personal income and

China: Fiscal weakness lingered in June; expecting government bond issuance to pick up in Q3

Bottom line:China’s on-budget fiscal revenue growth remained subdued in June, weighed onagain by falling tax revenue growth (especially VAT and corporate income tax),

FX Positioning Update

At present, the G10 FX PIX 2.0 signals that the GBP, JPY and AUD areoverbought. We have temporarily suspended the model’s trading

Today's Morning Meeting

quity Strategy(Mislav Matejka,CFA)Q2 Preview: Consensus call for the EPS narrowing between the Mag-7 and rest might still be lackingQ2 reporting season is heating up. Activity was broadly better for the quarter, sequentially, pointing to

New Monetary Framework: more hawkish than you think

The ECB’s new monetary framework is set to take effect on18 September, and yet nothing will really change. The only effective

Precious Analyst China’s Structurally Resilient Gold Demand

The gold price set a new all-time high of $2,483/toz on Wednesday (July 17) asexpected Fed cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into the gold market.

FOMC – Six questions

Two 2024 cuts versus three? Our baseline remains two Fed cuts in H2, one in September and one in Q4. The market is divided on pricing and so are we to some

Can Trump depreciate the USD?

Careful what you wish for, ‘cause you might get it in heapsThe most often asked question we encountered last week was whether a weak USD

USD: feeling green

The USD outlook has taken a turn for the worse of late on the back of: (1) growing market expectation that the Fed easing cycle could start as