海外研报

FOMC – Six questions

Two 2024 cuts versus three? Our baseline remains two Fed cuts in H2, one in September and one in Q4. The market is divided on pricing and so are we to some

Can Trump depreciate the USD?

Careful what you wish for, ‘cause you might get it in heapsThe most often asked question we encountered last week was whether a weak USD

USD: feeling green

The USD outlook has taken a turn for the worse of late on the back of: (1) growing market expectation that the Fed easing cycle could start as

Global Macro Commentary

Fed Chair Powell says recent inflation data add confidence; USTs bear-steepen; BoC surveys show inflation expectations

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

OVERNIGHT BRIEFUS/EU trade: European Equities closed lower (SXXP -0.3%, $X5E -0.7%) with CAC (-1.2%)underperforming also today, Luxury (-1.4%), China Exposed Consumer (-1.4%) and BasicResources (-1.7%) reflected concerns around China. ECB Bank Lending

Asia Open - Mind the unwind, from USDJPY to US stocks

Consensus trades took a hit Wednesday, as seen by the sell-off in USDJPY (-1.3%) and Nasdaq (-2.5%). A combination of

Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update

The MXAPJ Index dropped 0.4% today. Indonesia and Philippines marketsoutperformed, while Taiwan and Korea markets underperformed. Within MXAPJsectors, Cons Stap and Energy led while Info Tech and Industrials lagged. MSCI

The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year.n A transitory downstream flow effect of Fed cuts on front-end spreads is possible

Macro Credit Views: Trust in carry (Karoui)

Carry remains our baseline view. Valuation constraints continue to loom large inmost segments of credit markets, greatly limiting the scope for upside convexity

The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Capex Beneficiaries

The US presidential election is re-shaping the Europeanequity market. While markets have just started to fadeEuropean political risk, the US presidential election on