海外研报

TOP OF THE AGENDA

.US: Futs are weaker with Tech dragging down SPX/NDX as both Semis and Mag7 are beingsold pre-mkt with ASML -6% onnegative geopolitical headlines; TSM reports tmrw. Pre-mktAAPL, NVDA, TSLA, AMD, MU, AVGO, MSFT, AMAT all down 1.4%

USA: GS Economic Indicators Update

Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behindthese exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our livingpage here.

Curb Your Enthusiasm

At $6.56 trillion, assets under management (AUM) in US money market funds(MMFs) hit another record high last week. Inflows to MMFs have continued even asmarket pricing of policy easing has moved higher -today, the market-

US Elections & the MexicoChina Bridge vs. Buffer Debate

Key TakeawaysChinese investment is a risk to Mexico's nearshoring narrative, not a means to achieve it. Mexico is acting as a China Buffer fending off Asian imports ~75%

Data Preview: Mixed Picture in June,

Data preview: mixed picture again in June, slower Q2 GDP growth momentumFor the upcoming June data release, we expect smaller y/y decline in property sales on alow base,

Taking shelter from inflation

Weekly Viewpoint: Taking shelter from inflationA downside surprise to June CPI inflation, driven by softer shelter, should increase the Fed’s confidence that inflation is converging to target. That said, rate cuts are not just

Powell Deftly Opens the Door for Rate Cuts, but Doesn't Appear Ready to Step Through It

Fed Chair Powell made a subtle shift in his stance on monetary policy today, speaking before the Economic Club ofWashington DC. He made it abundantly clear that he did not want to send a signal about any particular meeting coming

Click “here” to listen to the Europe Morning Call.

Transport Chartbook – thoughts on shipping S/D – Global trade growth remainedstrong in 2Q with air freight up +10% yoy and container +6%. This is driven by a

Week 1: 3% beat in early days

Big Banks delivered on 1Q results, all beating on EPS but not enough to lift stocks higher. Net interest income was guided flat to down, but trading and investment banking

Global Fixed Income Technical Update

The 5s/30s curve extends the breakout steepening to the 29.5bp Jan 78.6% retrace and 30bp Apr-Jun range measured move objective. Multi-year base