海外研报

Exposure to Big Tech impacted 1H results

Our US Regime Indicator (based on a three month moving average of the underlying raw indicator) continued to improve in June, but the underlying raw time series declined for a

Global Fixed Income Markets Weekly

• Summary performance statistics for trades closed in 2022-2024• Covering Europe, UK, Scandinavia, Japan and Australia/New Zealand trades

China: Not Quite the QE You Expect

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been trying to cap a record-breaking rally in the bond market. Unfavourable rate differentials add to yuan

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Trump’s rising presidential odds, Fed cuts may soon begin,

US election: Trump’s rising oddsThe likelihood of a Trump presidency has risen further in betting markets sinceSaturday’s shocking assassination attempt, and we maintain that such an election

US Weekly Kickstart

Prediction market odds have shifted sharply in favor of a Trump re-election this November and now stand at roughly 60% compared with 40%-50%

Breaking the Rules

It’s a general rule that you should avoid saying “This time is different.” So far, though, I have broken that rule in this cycle, because so much of what we are seeing

DB CoTD: The 2% club has increased

** The 2024 II Fixed Income Analyst survey is now open. If you’ve appreciated our work over the last year, it would mean a lot to us if you’d be able to vote. I have a pdf

TOP OF THE AGENDA

SPX +1.1%, NDX +1.5%,RTY +1.7%.WTl-31bps at $78.40, NatGas +578bps to $2.25, UKNatGas -155bps to£0.7797,Gold -18bps to $2,397,Silver -34bps to $29.13, 10Y @ 4.253%, andVIX @ 14.91.

Regional Market Focus ETF in Focus

The ageing global population and rising life expectancy are driving an increase in healthcare spending. Healthcare accounts for over 10% weightage in major global indices

GS Equity Radar

European markets traded some relief post the second round of French elections (seeAlex Stott’s post-election Q&A), with V2X c.8% lower vs. last Friday (at time ofwriting). In the US