海外研报

The Fed’s increased room for manoeuvre

On the face of it, Friday’s US payroll data was not that dramatic. But it led to a moderate pickup in Federal Reserve easing expectations which were further increased by today’s lower-than-expected CPI inflation data.

Gauging Powell’s Confidence

Four central banks will deliver decisions in the wake of Powell’s comments, but none of the ECB, PBOC, BI or

Weekly IMM FX Positioning

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the desk and/or the author only. The publication may not be considered investment research or an

Attempted assassination of presidential candidate Donald Trump

On Saturday evening, former President Donald Trump was wounded in anassassination attempt during a campaign rally. A bystander was killed, andtwo others were critically wounded. The assailant was shot dead by securityservices.

Breaking up

EUA prices are stuck at €65–75/t and are unlikely to shift far out of that range in the coming week. The call option open interest (OI) stack still to be more highly hedged

Americas Energy: Oil: Majors & Refiners: Refreshing Select Estimates (VLO, MEG.TO)

We update forecasts for MEG.TO and VLO to reflect recent commodity prices forCanada oil and refining indicator margins for Valero. Our price target is unchanged for

Five TD Sequential signals to know for Q3

Summary: Market timing with TD SequentialOn Thursday July 18th at 12pm NY / 5pm London time we will host a conference call

Global Macro Insight 17 July 2024

Door opening to Fed rate cuts, September eyed• The door is opening for the Fed to begin cutting rates soon, which we expect to start in September (25bp). Q2 inflation data indicate disinflation

Global Credit Trader The rotation has yet to reach CCCs

Cuts are unlikely to flatten IG curvesn USD IG spread curves have remained remarkably stable this year.

Q2’24 Earnings Review: Solid Earnings Result Driven By Subscriber Momentum

Netflix reported a solid Q2 ’24 earnings report driven bybetter-than-expected subscriber growth (driven by strong contentslate & scaling of ad supported tier) with a more mixed picture on