海外研报

Global Economics Wrap-Up: August 2, 2024

Former US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are likely to accelerateshifts in the allocation of global trade:o We use product-level variation in tariff rates and trade patterns to estimate

Quicker labour market cooling could mean more aggressive Fed

A much quieter calendar lies ahead for the coming week, highlighted by ISM services and the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey (SLOOS).

US/Europe Monthly ETF Flow Tracker

Flows into US-listed ETFs accelerated sharply in July to +$89.2bn (vs. $41.9bnin June). Among the broad categories we track, Broad-Based Index Equity ETFs

weighed down by continued weakness in North Asian markets & Global Cyclicals

MXAPJ lost 0.8%, dragged down by Philippines, Taiwan andKorea (-2% each), while Thailand, Australia, and Indonesia

Change in Fed call: Three 25bp cuts this year

With this morning's weaker-than-expected labor market report,we now expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25bp three times this

Daily and weekly indicators for the US economy

Torsten Slok joined Apollo in August 2020 as Chief Economist and he leads Apollo's

A Question of Pace

With the cutting cycle set to start in September as expected, the pace of further cuts is now the debate. Markets are pricing more

substantial foreign outflows continued in Tech

Performance: MSCI/All Taiwan -2.3%/-2.0% this week,underperforming MXAPJ by -1.5% (in US$), dragged by

July FOMC meeting: Not quite there yet

Not quite there yetIn our view, the main message from the July FOMC meeting is that the Fed is getting closer to a rate cut, but needs more evidence that inflation is under control before it

Global Credit Trader The growth scare comes for credit too

An earlier than expected growth scaren A series of weaker than expected data releases, including the July employment