海外研报
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US Daily: Renewed Progress on Recession Risk (Hatzius)
After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” weraised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have
海外研报
2024年08月19日
The Viewpoint: How Asian Central Banks Will React
The key debate is still US recession risks. Our US economics team continues to expect a soft landing with the Fed only cutting rates to 3.625% by end-2025.
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Signals from the Credit Market for US Growth Risks
We think signals from the corporate credit market are fully consistent with a soft landing.
海外研报
2024年08月19日
The Consumer in Context
Our view has been that consumer spending would slow but not slump; so far that path has played out. Employment, wealth, and
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Global Macro Commentary | North America August 16 Morgan Stanley & Co.
Strong US data caps UST rally; solid UK retail sales sends gilts higher; RBNZ's Silk says contraction may be needed to lower
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Apr-Jun GDP Quick Comment: Domestic Demand Recovery Reaffirmed
2024 reveal that real GDP growth came in at 3.1% SAAR, exceeding both the Bloomberg consensus of 2.3% and our 2.6% prior forecast (Japan Economics: Apr-Jun
海外研报
2024年08月19日
A truer signal from the unemployment rate
Historically, a substantial rise in the unemployment rate has been associated with a recession. But changes in the unemployment rate can be amplified or damped by
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Retail Sales: Just Keep Spending
Retail sales in July well exceeded expectations. The beat in retail sales was broad-based and showed that consumption remains solid,
海外研报
2024年08月19日
Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Derivative Thinking
All attention this week will be on Jackson Hole, where the conference has been aptly titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We
海外研报
2024年08月19日
TOPIX rises 7.9% wow, continuing its recovery from the recent steep fall
Summary of the weekTOPIX: 2,678.60 (7.9%) / NK225: 38,062.67 (8.7%)
海外研报
2024年08月19日
