海外研报

Global Fixed Income Views

A 70% probability of Sub Trend Growth, and a soft landing, remain our base case. While smaller businesses and lower income households struggle with

Global Asset Allocation Views

The data reaffirm our base case view of moderating growth and cooling inflation.• This environment supports a risk-on tilt in portfolios, with overweights to equity and credit.

Outlook for public and private markets

Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. Apollo GlobalManagement, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”) makes no representation or warranty, expressed or

We Forecast Core PCE at 0.16% After PPI

We now forecast core PCE inflation for June at 0.16% vs. 0.08%M in May. Headline is forecasted at 0.07% vs. -0.01%M the month prior. We expect the Y/Y

Breaking the Rules

It’s a general rule that you should avoid saying “This time is different.” So far, though, I have broken that rule in this cycle, because so much of what we are seeing

More data please, July edition

Monetary Policy | Still waiting for more data: The ECB will keep rates on hold in July. From its perspective, more data is needed to confirm the assumed (and

Quarterly Market Review

The economic momentum of the first quarter of 2024 continued into the second, and the last three months were another positive period for equity markets. Initially, investors aggressively

JUNE 2024 PRELIMINARY HEDGE FUND PERFORMANCE UPDATE

▪ Hedge funds were up on average 0.46% in June underperforming the MSCI World which was up 2.07%.▪ YTD hedge funds are up 5.81%, underperforming MSCI world which is up 12.04%.

Summer Break

n GBP: Stay long vs USD. The tactical backdrop looks increasingly friendly for riskand negative for the Dollar with further signs of a benign slowdown in US

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 12, 2024

Consumer sentiment appears more sensitive to inflation in DMs (whereinflation is rarer) than in EMs, and the effect tends to persist for two yearsafter a surge ends.