海外研报

Hong Kong: Retail sales fell further in May

On a month-over-month basis (seasonally adjusted), Hong Kong retail salescontinued to decline in May (-1.6% in value terms, -1.4% in volume terms). Sales

USD Rates Chart Pack: Futures Positions & Curve Analysis

The report captures the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data oninvestor positions in futures at aggregate levels as well as by maturity sectors.

Emerging Markets mid-year 2024 outlook

Macro focus: At the start of this year, we had expected building drags from aslowing China and the 2021-23 global hiking cycle to pull down the EM complex.Yet, EMs defied expectations in H1 2024, buoyed by the resiliency in the consumer.

The Point for Asia Pacific

TopCallChina Multi-Asset - All Eyes on Third Plenum; Plus Buy Export & CommodityPlaysIn the run-up to China’s much-anticipated Third Plenum on 15-18 July, our

Economics Focus

What do your semis neighbors own? June ’24 update

Semis rel. weighting falls again, now below 1.0xWe use BofA Equity Strategy data (see related report here) to examine breadth (what %

June payrolls preview: The job market continues to hum along

Cooling but not coolWe forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by a solid 200k in June, a 72k decline from the 272k

When politics trump data

Market HighlightsMarkets seems to be increasingly pricing in the prospects of a Trump Presidency after

2024Q2: Hardware Investment Grows, Barriers to Profitable Use Remain (Kodnani)

AI-related investment growth remains strong, particularly for semiconductorfirms, where equity markets expect revenue growth of around 50% from currentlevels by the end of 2025. Since the release of ChatGPT, equity markets have