海外研报

Americas Energy: Oil: Majors & Refiners: Refreshing Select Estimates (VLO, MEG.TO)

We update forecasts for MEG.TO and VLO to reflect recent commodity prices forCanada oil and refining indicator margins for Valero. Our price target is unchanged for

Global Macro Insight 17 July 2024

Door opening to Fed rate cuts, September eyed• The door is opening for the Fed to begin cutting rates soon, which we expect to start in September (25bp). Q2 inflation data indicate disinflation

Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

The week started with pressure on EMs after the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, though Fed Chair Jerome

Deconstructing the recent rally – and what’s next

Greater confidence in rate cuts? Check. Now: EPS in focusFollowing last week’s inflation data, small caps saw the biggest four-day rally since

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE:MORNING BRIEFING

SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.4%,RTY -0.2%.WTl Obps at $82.85, NatGas +10bps to $2.04, UKNatGas +111bps to £0.7459, Gold +32bps to $2,467, Silver +73bps to $30.52,10Y @4.185%and VIX @ 14.44.

Americas Morning Research Summary

This summary is compiled from research reports previously published by Barclays Equity Research. A full list of all publications is available on

IndiaPulse: Towards more inclusive growth

We forecast USDINR at 82.80 and IGB 10-year bond yields at 6.80% by the end of the fiscal year, together with a shallow RBI rate cut cycle of 50bps starting 1Q2025 (calendar year).

F3Q24 preview: Apple Intelligence and the iPhone replacement cycle

We expect AAPL to deliver an EPS beat in F3Q24E with $85.1 bnof revenue (+4% yoy) and EPS of $1.36 (v. FactSet consensus$1.33).

ECB: A September cut remains on track

The ECB kept rates on hold today, as was universally expected. This decision was unanimous and the Governing Council was also united in not giving an explicit

Global Fixed Income Technical Update

The 5s/30s curve extends the breakout steepening to the 29.5bp Jan 78.6% retrace and 30bp Apr-Jun range measured move objective. Multi-year base