海外研报

BCA--Is The Fed Asleep At The Wheel… Again?

The good news is that we should not fear an imminent US recession.• In the absence of recession though, the Fed cannot cut rates as aggressivelyas is priced if it wants to keep inflation and inflation expectations anchored at2 percent.

GS--China: Tourism data showed largely stable momentum during the National Day Golden Week

Bottom line: Tourism data during the National Day Golden Week showed largelystable growth momentum in the hospitality sector vs previous long holiday, with

GS--China Optical Transceivers_ 3Q Preview

Optical Transceiver makers (Innolight, Eoptolink, HG Tech, TFC Optical) in ourcoverage are scheduled to report 3Q results during Oct 22~Oct 24. We expect

BofA_US Viewpoint September CPI FAQ- expected report should create scope for dip buying_20241009

0.3% CPI = more bark than biteWhile knee-jerk the market may initially bear flatten with a MoM core 0.3% CPI print, we

BofA_Liquid Insight ECB- from how fast to how far_20241009

Key takeaways• The ECB seems to have opened the door to back to back cuts. This potentially answers the question of how quickly they cut.

BofA_FX Viewpoint FX flows & positioning in Q3_20241009

Market overview: Hedge Fund USD selling vs. EM FXBofA investors ended Q3 slightly long USD, neutral rest of G10 FX, and marginally short

BofA What Seasonality

S&P 500 defies gravity in the seasonally weakest monthThe S&P 500 gained 2.1% on a total return basis, the best September since 2013 and

BofA Equity Vol Insights - Nervous Vol Still Underprices Election Week

Stressed vol still underprices rare election + FOMC weekUS equity vol has become notably stressed in recent days with geopolitical risks rising and the US election approaching. The VIX trades at a 14-point premium to S&P realized

GS--Aerospace & Defense_ 3Q24 earnings preview

Our 3Q24 A&D earnings preview provides our current thoughts on each sub-marketand single stock ideas into the results period. Aerospace OE is challenged by the