海外研报

US Weekly Prospects

The soft landing story has been gaining inereasing credibilityin recent weeks. lfanything, some of the growth data hadbcen suggesting activity was slowing more than would bedesirable.

Global Macro Commentary

Global cyber outage creates broad-based disruption; USTscheapen absent major economic catalysts; CAD weakensintraday following soft retail sales; JGB curve twist flattens aftersoft CPl;

SAUDI KEY TO TRUMP OIL TRADE

Talk of ‘Trump trades’ has become more fashionable than ever since last weekend’s failed assassination attempt on the Republican nominee – but most such talk is inconclusive. The

Mid-July JD Power US pricing data indicates industry ATPs at $43.9k, -2.0% m/m and -3.3% y/y

Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Dan Levy, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject

Shifting narrative and market implications

We hosted the fifh installment ofthe Strategic Research 2024 US Election Watchseries on July 17, featuring IP, Morgan researchers who discussed the keytakeaways, firom meetings duringour recent trip to Washington, D,C, The meetingsin

Microsoft Outage More a CrowdStrike Issue

This morning, MSFT is experiencing a large outage stemmingfrom a faulty software update from CRWD. While theimplications

Sizing the Very Uncertain Increase in Trade Policy Uncertainty (Briggs/Pierdomenico)

US Presidential candidate Donald Trump has signaled that he will likelyimplement significant tariffs if elected, raising risks that a sharp increase in trade

US Weekly Kickstart

Small-caps just posted the most powerful weekly return vs. large-caps on record. Against a backdrop of extreme equity market concentration, four

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary

United States: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S.• Retail sales, housing starts and industrial production all surprised to the upside this week. Yet, an

Despite the Heat, the Animal Spirits are Cooling Off

Stormy Spirits Ahead?Our Animal Spirits Index (ASI) fell in June to 0.53 from 0.88 in May but has remained positive in all six months of 2024 (chart). Previous reports detail the index's methodology, but on a basic level, an