海外研报

Next week...this week

The JulyCPl reportin theUSdueWednesdaywillbe amongthekeyreleasesfornextweek ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium on August 22-24. Our USeconomistsexpectboth headlineandcore torise +0.20%MoMvs-0.1%and +0.1%MoM pace

Abrupt Cut To Underweight

Aggregateequitypositioningplungedthis week, falling from a mid-Julypeakat the top ofthe historical range (z score 1.00, 97th percentile) to belowaverage orunderweight (z score -0,26, 31st percentile). This marked one ofthe steepest declines in recent

Data offers a bit of comfort, but sentiment still fragile

CPI inflation has improved in recent months following the hotter-thanexpected data in Q124, and we expect that trend to continue with another

Cross-Asset Weekly

The financial market turbulences this week have highlighted that (1) macro risks are shifting from inflation to growth, (2) carry trades are vulnerable to sharp reversals in late cycle ear.

Any more systematic pressure in USDJPY and US equities?

Benchmark CTA down big this past MondayWhile declining steadily in each of the last four weeks, this past Monday the SG CTA benchmark index posted its largest daily drop since Mar-23. This on the same day

Global Macro Watch Known Unknowns 11 – 16 August

July US CPI should be good enough for a September cutWe forecast headline CPI rose by 0.3% mom in July, owing mainly to a pickup in core

European equities: Q2 2024 earnings season recap

Cautious guidance: Current market volatility is due to a combination of factors in a poorliquidity month and cautious corporate guidance. We continue to recommend a defensivestance and buying into high-quality companies that have derated.

Treasury Curve: Own 2 -Year/10-Year Curve Steepeners

According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, Friday's employment report caused financiamarkets to price-in some .

Resist The Urge To Buy The Dip

The risk-off mood that dominated markets on Thursday, Friday and the early stages of Monday's trading amiddismal payrolls, tech earnings and manufacturing PMls seems to have dissipated for the time being. Thepositive signal from July's iSM services

Month-In-Review: Where Next For BondYields And The Dollar?

The dollar is a buy over the nextsix to 12 months, but a sell over athree-year horizon.The yen has all the catalystsrequired to rally.